WALSH PURE SPREADER - Pure Hedge Division

Rich Moran                                                                                                                         8/29/2025

DEC-MAR Corn Spread (ZCZ25-ZCH26)

The Dec-Mar Corn Spread (ZCZ25-ZCH26) has been trending down since its high of -10¼ on February 18^th.  It hit a low of -18¼ on August 13^th.  It then traded at that same low of -18¼ today, less than 1 cent below the 14-day and 21-day moving averages.  It has now been trading somewhat sideways between -18 and -16 since the middle of July and is flirting with settling above both the 14-day and the 21-day moving averages.

We had the USDA’s projections on August 12^th showing an average yield for corn coming in at 188.8 bushels per acre or a total output of about 16.7 billion bushels.  10 days later on August 22^nd the Pro Farmer projections came out much lower at 182.7 bushels per acre or a total output of about 16.2 billion bushels.  We also have the recent concerns of Southern Rust Decease with corn.  

With these bullish fundamentals, along with the technical pattern developing, I think we should try getting long the ZCZ25-ZCH26 (DEC-Mar Corn Spread) if we can settle above the 14-day and 21-day moving averages.  Today, we settled even with the 14-day today and just below the 21-day.  If the outright corn market does go up, I believe ZCZ25 could win the race up versus ZCH26.  Even if there is not a strong rally in corn, I think the spread might still strengthen.  Full carry is 30.66 and we are currently more than 50% of that. 

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Following up on past trade ideas:

• 8/27/25: ZSF26-ZSN26 (JAN-JULY’26 Soybean Spread)

 If we can get back above and settle above the 14-day and 21-day moving averages averages, I think we should try buying the spread with a short stop below these moving averages.

Today, we settled just below these two moving averages. 

• 8/6/25: ZSX25-ZSF26 (NOV-JAN Soybean Spread)

Today’s Settlement: -18, Long at -17½

The spread settled above the 14-day and the 21-day at -17¾ on 8/21/25.  You should be long at -17½ from the open on 8/22/25.

Risking 3½ cents (-21) or $175 to make 9 ½ cents (-8) or $475

• 8/1/25: LEV25-HEV25 (OCT’25 Live Cattle-OCT’25 Lean Hogs Spread)

Today’s Settlement: 142.650, If we are fortunate enough to have this spread, LEV25-HEV25, settle below the 14-day and 21-day moving averages, I think it could be a good time to short it. It just might be a more comfortable way to slide some Live Cattle shorts into our position.

• 7/23/25: ZWZ25-ZWH26 (DEC’25-MAR’26 Wheat Spread))

Today’s Settlement: -17, Long at -18½

Risking 3½ cents (-22) or $175 Per Spread to make 10 cents (-8½) or $500 Per Spread.

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Rich Moran

Senior Commodities Broker

RMoran@walshtrading.co

Direct: (312)985-0298

Cell: (773)502-5321

Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
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